FIG. 8How planning time gets split
the three horizons, before and now
Before
Long term
5–10 year vision
0–1 year1–3 years3–10 years
Now
Doesn't fit
Mid
horizon
this is where innovation lives
0–6 m6 m – 3 years3+ years
Traditional planning sought certainty. Exponential planning seeks direction.
Horizon 1
Short term
The reflex zone. Only captured by those already ready.
By the time you see the wave coming, building the team, validating the case, securing budget and running the pilot will take long enough that the wave has passed. The space is saturated with competitors who started earlier. It's the horizon the fast win, and the fast are always fewer than we think.
No longer fits
Horizon 2
Mid term
Where you can still see, decide and build.
Close enough that the key variables are still identifiable. Far enough to build something deep before the market devours it. The difference between an organisation that gets it right and one that doesn't, almost always, is having learned to move here without obsessing over the extremes.
The only usable one
Horizon 3
Long term
Not more uncertain — it's already happened by the time you get there.
What we traditionally called long term materialises today in a time that, until recently, was the short term. Plans beyond three years today are orientation exercises, not predictions. The format changed: from detailed maps to flexible compasses.
Disappeared
Yipikai2004 · internet video platform
The vision was right. Communications infrastructure in Spain didn't exist yet, and building it wasn't in our hands.
— Wrong horizon
Interactive television· real customers, validated revenue
We improved. We had customers. We validated the proposal. But the mass market took longer than we could endure.
— Closer, but no
Applied AI2025 · wave in progress
Not the first time I've seen the curve rise. The difference is this one reached infrastructure, market and decision table at the same time.
— Aligned horizon
"Innovation isn't about seeing the future. It's about seeing the slice of future that will arrive on time.»
— Exponential Times · Chapter 5