InfographicsConceptualInteractive version
How change that looks linear catches up with us once time compounds.
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Two qualitatively different modes of change
Imagine a lily that doubles in size every day in a pond. For weeks it barely takes up a corner.
When it covers half, it's one day away from covering all of it. If you watched calmly for weeks, the conclusion was reasonable: “nothing to worry about”. That conclusion is exactly what exponential curves punish hardest.
“Our everyday intuition is linear. That's why exponential processes catch us off-guard — not a moral or intellectual failing, but a limit of the cognitive hardware we operate with.”
— Exponential Times · Chapter 1